What do the Scottish people think of the major issues of the day ? Over many years their views have often been ignored if not suppressed, and at times misrepresented. But recent referendums, polls, and surveys have given us an up-to-date and more accurate picture of Scottish opinion. Below is a summary of the Scots’ views on national independence, on political parties, on the Holyrood and Westminster elections, on nuclear weapons, and on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Independence
TNS System Three Polls Commissioned by the Sunday Herald, 13 April 2008 :
Question : The Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state
Approve 41% Disapprove 40% Don’t Know 19%
Together with two previous polls, the results show pro independence support growing from 35 to 40 to 41 per cent, while anti-independence views have dropped from 50 to 44 to 40%.
Daily Mail, 12 January 2007, published polls on whether respondents would approve or disapprove of Scotland becoming an independent country, yielded less consistent changes.
Approve 51% Disapprove 36% Don’t Know 14%
Its two other polls showed support for independence fluctuating widely from 51 down to 31%, and disapproval of independence varying from 49 to 36 %.
The Scotsman newspaper commissioned ten ICM polls in 1999 and 1998, asking voters how they would vote in a referendum on independence. Results were :
Yes : 42 to 56 % No : 35 to 47 % Don’t Know : 7 to 15 %
Party preference, Holyrood, Scottish Parliament, (under proportional voting)
Constituency vote SNP 40% Labour 32% Conservative 12% Lib-Dems 13%
Regional vote SNP 33% Labour 30% Conservative 13% Lib-Dems 12%
The above results were from YouGov polls 5 April 2008, Four previous polls showed support varying as follows : SNP 32 – 40% constituency, and 31 to 40% regional; Labour 29 – 32% const., and 26 – 30% reg. Conservative 12 – 16% const., and 13 – 14% reg. Lib-Dems 12 – 16% constituency, and 12 – 16% regional.
Party preference, Westminster (UK Parliament) (first past the post vote system)
YouGov poll commissioned by the Sunday Times, 16 March 2008, and average of 5 previous polls by the Sunday Times, Times Channel 4 TV, and the SNP.
16 March 2008 SNP 37% Labour 30% Conservative 18% Lib-Dems 11%
Average of polls SNP 35% Labour 30% Conservative 17% Lib-Dems 11%
Nuclear Weapons
The UK and USA have Trident nuclear weapons installed in submarines based in the Firth of Clyde in Scotland. An ICM poll carried out on behalf of CND in January 2007 asked respondents whether they would support UK government plans to continue to have nuclear weapons in Scotland for up to 50 years. The responses were :
Oppose nuclear weapons 64% Support Nuclear weapons 30% Don’t Know 6%
The cost of replacing the Trident system was estimated at £ 20 to £ 50 billion over the lifetime of the system. Voters were asked if they thought it was right or wrong to spend so much on new nuclear weapons. They responded as follows :
Wrong 73% Right 21% Don’t Know 6%
A final question was whether they would be more likely or less likely to vote for a political party that supported the nuclear weapons system, in the Scottish election.
Less Likely 33% More Likely 13% No Difference 49% Don’t Know 5%
The War in Iraq
Scots have consistently been opposed to involvement in foreign wars unless there was a clear UN mandate for that. It might be noted that the numbers of Scots regiments and Scottish soldiers are proportionally higher than for English forces. War casualties are therefore mostly higher for Scots than English soldiers. Prior to the Iraq invasion only 15% of Scots supported military action in Iraq without UN backing. 26% said they opposed involvement in the war under any circumstances. The views hardened as the war continued. From a MORI poll in May 2007 the percentage of Scots opposing Prime Minister Tony Blair’s conduct of the war had risen to 77% and those approving it had fallen to17%.
Disapprove of TB’s conduct of the war 77% Approve 17% Don’t Know 6%
Attitudes of Scots towards President George W Bush’s prosecution of the Iraq war were even stronger. At the same time, May 2007, the responses were :
Disapprove of GWB’s conduct of the war 85% Approve 9% Don’t Know 6%
The War in Afghanistan
On 4 November 2001 the Mail on Sunday (Scottish Sunday Mail) published a poll on attitudes to the ‘War of Afghanistan’. It revealed that 69% of Scots favoured the use of sanctions, diplomacy, or bringing Bin Laden to trial. Only 17% favoured his execution, and a mere 5% supported the bombing of that country.
The two main Scottish newspapers have consistently supported the government line on military actions (as they also do on its opposition to independence). The Scottish press and Scottish editions of the English papers (including the supposedly liberal Guardian), often interpret the polls as showing support for the war. They also have a policy of giving minimal coverage to public marches, demonstrations, and ‘private’ polls (i.e. those not endorsed by government or the media).
Questions posed in polls about the war are regularly skewed in favour of the administration’s position. When adequate questions are posed about alternatives to war and bombing, the responses are consistent. An ICM Guardian poll of October 2001 showed 54% in favour of a pause in bombing to allow aid to reach civilians in Afghanistan.
Source : Dr David Miller, Stirling Media Research Institute, University of Stirling, Scotland, 21 November 2001. ‘World opinion opposes the attack on Afghanistan’